Forest ecosystems of the future will have to cope with very different conditions to those of today. For this reason, researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) state that a strategic approach to forest management is crucial. To this end, the research team has developed iLand: a simulation model that can compute long-term developments of large forest landscapes, right down to the individual tree—including disturbances from bark beetles to wildfires.
Charred tree trunks and blackened soil are typical of the desolation that a forest fire leaves behind. Inevitably, the question arises whether it will be possible to restore a green natural landscape. According to Rupert Seidl, Professor of Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management, this is possible, but the “how” decides how much the new forest will benefit the climate, nature and people.
“Today’s forest ecosystems are not particularly well adapted to future climate conditions,” says Seidl. “Over the next decades they will presumably come under increasing pressure from water shortage and insect pests, and may even die off. This is why it makes sense to use measures such as the reforestation of disturbed areas to strategically select tree species and take future developments into consideration.”
But how to anticipate which species of tree could contribute to a climate-resilient forest landscape in 20, 30 or 40 years? Experiment-based studies can often provide only limited answers, as they spotlight just a narrow segment of the decades or centuries it takes for forest ecosystems to develop. This type of analysis is also insufficient to gauge the long-term effects of a large-scale bark beetle infestation. But this is what’s needed to lay the groundwork for the forests of tomorrow, today.
Creating a tree portfolio with a digital twin
Researchers are therefore using landscape simulation models, that is, software that creates a digital image of reality and can represent complex ecological interactions. The team around Seidl and Werner Rammer has developed such a simulation model: iLand can create a digital twin of varying forest landscapes and calculate their long-term development under different climate scenarios, for example under constant climatic conditions, a climate warming of 1°C, or of 4.8°C.
They published their research in the journal Ecological Modelling. An earlier “Data Article” was published in Data in Brief.
In the context of climate change, it is crucial to consider long-term developments and strategically plan forest management. The iLand tool enables the simulation of long-term developments for large forest areas. Pictured here: Prof. Dr. Rupert Seidl © Astrid Eckert / TUM
Other models work in a similar way to that of the TUM research team, but they consider individual tree stands covering just a few hectares. “With iLand, we can simulate the dynamic interaction between individual trees, or that between trees and, say, bark beetles, over decades to centuries—and this over large areas of up to 100,000 hectares, meaning that we can study entire national parks,” says Rammer. “This is currently not possible with other models.”
This means that iLand has a wide range of possible applications, as the high resolution of the model allows it to simulate forest management measures in great detail. For example, it can calculate how deforestation or the planting of specific tree species affects the rest of the forest or which tree species portfolio absorbs the most CO2 and builds up biomass quickly for raw material use. Extreme events such as forest fires, storms or droughts can also be simulated.
Open to further development
Seidl, Rammer and the team have been working on iLand and its ongoing development for 12 years. It has now been used as a model in more than 50 studies by various research institutions.
“We can simulate 150 tree species in our digital forest and we’ve expanded the model, so that it can be used on three continents,” says Rammer. “Those who wish to work with it can develop the program and adapt it to their needs. This is intended to enable as many researchers as possible to use iLand for their own work.”
More information:
Werner Rammer et al, The individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand: Overview, progress, and outlook, Ecological Modelling (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110785
Dominik Thom et al, Parameters of 150 temperate and boreal tree species and provenances for an individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model, Data in Brief (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2024.110662
Provided by
Technical University Munich
Citation:
Digital twin model enables precise simulation of forest landscapes, depicting a forest in 100 years (2024, December 6)
