An international study led by Professor Peter Vickers of Durham University introduces a novel methodology for rapidly assessing scientific consensus on a global scale.
This innovative approach offers the ability to collect real-time, representative data on scientists’ opinions across fields, geographical locations, and over time—a breakthrough that could reshape policy-making and public understanding in fields from health sciences to climate change.
The study, conducted in June 2023, brought together a global network of 30 institutions spanning 12 countries. Over 20,000 scientists were invited to participate, resulting in 6,807 responses to a single-statement survey on COVID-19 causation. The work is published in PLOS ONE.
The success of this methodology points to a robust, scalable approach for gauging scientific opinion with high response rates, a low opt-out percentage, and quick turnarounds.
By creating a concise, 10-second survey accessible through a network of local academic representatives, researchers were able to secure the highest ever response rate for a large-scale, global scientific survey. This method is designed not only for rapid implementation but also for adaptability, ensuring its relevance for future research in evolving fields.
Reflecting on the study, Professor Peter Vickers of Durham University said, “Humanity has never before had access to data on global scientific community opinion, on any topic, at any time. We’re right on the cusp of being able to deliver that and I’m truly excited to see where this could lead.”
The study achieved a 33.9% overall response rate, a significant improvement over traditional survey approaches, which often yield lower engagement. The response rate was particularly high among physicists, biologists, and earth scientists, reaching as much as 55% at select institutions.
By leveraging local academic contacts, the new approach has real potential to overcome common barriers in large-scale research, such as low international representation and slow data collection.
The survey also revealed important trends: institutions across multiple countries reported high levels of agreement, though notable variations were observed.
A follow-up survey at Argentina’s CONICET, prompted by an initially lower agreement rate, achieved nearly unanimous agreement, illustrating the method’s capacity to reveal regional differences, and explore ways in which results can be affected by methodological decision points.
This survey methodology holds vast potential for repeated, large-scale scientific assessments that can quickly inform pressing policy debates. The method has already expanded to include over 50,000 scientists across 80 institutions worldwide.
By building a sustainable framework for rapidly assessing scientific consensus, this initiative offers an unparalleled resource for policymakers, educators, and the public.
More information:
PLOS ONE (2024). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0313541
Citation:
Pioneering survey methodology sets new standards for gauging global scientific consensus (2024, December 6)
